Australia has roughly 553,000 registered teachers. That sounds like a lot. Then consider that 83% of schools reported staffing shortages in the AEU’s 2024 survey, and 42% of lower secondary teachers are in schools where principals say those shortages are affecting the quality of instruction.
The teacher shortage is not new. In 2026, the picture is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. Some indicators are worsening. Others are improving. The implications for school workforce planning are significant.
Here’s what the data actually shows, and what it means for school leaders making decisions right now.
The Numbers: Where Things Stand
The Workforce Is Experienced and Ageing
Two-thirds of Australia’s teaching workforce (66%) has more than a decade of classroom experience. Senior leaders with 10–29 years’ experience increased from 57% in 2019 to 63% in 2023. That’s a deeply knowledgeable profession.
The workforce is also ageing. The proportion of experienced teachers at the top of their career is growing, while early career teacher numbers (those in their first five years) sit at 20% of the workforce as of 2023. When senior teachers retire in large numbers over the next decade, the gap won’t be filled overnight.
The Attrition Picture in Context
The widely cited figure that 39% of teachers intend to leave the profession before retirement, up from 35% in 2022, gets repeated often. It’s real, and it’s concerning. But it deserves context.
The leaving rate in 2022 was 11.6% according to HILDA survey data, which is broadly consistent with historical patterns (though AITSL’s registration-based attrition data shows a lower rate of around 4.6%). The entry rate has changed. New teachers entering the profession dropped from 24.8% in 2005 to a low of 7.9% in 2020. Even with post-COVID recovery, the pipeline isn’t keeping pace with demand.
In Queensland, QCT register data shows around 14% of graduate teachers leave the register within four years, though broader research estimates suggest the true attrition rate (including those who remain registered but stop teaching) may be significantly higher. That’s a retention problem as much as a shortage problem. The distinction matters for how schools respond.
Workload Is the Core Issue
Australian teachers work an average of 46.4 hours per week according to TALIS 2024, well above the OECD average of 40.8. A quarter of full-time teachers report working more than 60 hours per week during term time. Primary and secondary teachers spend 15–21 hours per week on marking, administration, and general teamwork, time not spent teaching.
A UNSW and Black Dog Institute study of nearly 5,000 teachers found 90% reported moderate to extremely severe stress levels, with depression and anxiety symptoms at three times the national average. When teachers say they’re considering leaving, workload and wellbeing are the reasons cited more than pay.
State by State: It’s Not One Problem
Teacher shortages look different depending on where you are. A workforce planning approach suited to inner-city Melbourne will produce different results in regional Queensland.
New South Wales
Vacancies in NSW public schools dropped by 61%, from 2,460 in Term 3 2022 to 962 by Term 3 2025. That’s genuine progress. But demand remains high in growth corridors, western Sydney, and low socio-economic areas. The NSW Department of Education’s partnership programs and subsidised access to booking platforms have contributed to improved coverage in metro areas.
Victoria
Victoria faces a projected deficit of 2,052 teachers by 2030 (1,675 secondary + 439 primary). Current shortages are most acute in secondary education, particularly in STEM subjects. Victoria also has the highest agency usage of any state. Many schools still default to relief teaching agencies rather than managing their own casual workforce, which adds cost and reduces control.
Queensland
Queensland’s challenge is retention, not recruitment. With QCT data showing around 14% of graduates leaving the register within four years, and broader estimates suggesting the true attrition rate is considerably higher. The state is training teachers who don’t stay. Rapid enrolment growth, particularly in south-east Queensland, compounds the problem. Regional and remote schools face the sharpest gaps.
Western Australia
WA recorded 1,279 teacher resignations in 2024–25, a five-year high and a 120% increase since 2020. Remote regions like the Kimberley and Pilbara are hardest hit, with housing shortages and isolation making recruitment difficult. The state government has introduced incentive packages for regional postings, but retention remains the bigger challenge.
South Australia, Tasmania, NT, and ACT
Rural and remote schools across these jurisdictions face the most severe shortages. In the Northern Territory, schools in remote communities regularly operate without enough qualified teachers. Tasmania and the ACT report similar patterns in regional areas, though urban schools in Hobart and Canberra are less affected.
- NSW: 962 vacancies, down 61% in 3 years
- VIC: 2,000+ teacher shortfall projected by 2030
- QLD: ~14% of grads leaving the register within 4 years (true attrition likely higher)
- WA: 1,279 resignations in 2024–25 (five-year high)
- SA/TAS/NA/ACT: Acute shortages in rural and remote areas
The Good News: The Pipeline Is Recovering
After years of decline, undergraduate teaching applications rose 6.5% to 15,302 for 2026. Domestic offers were up 6.3% to 10,559. This follows 9–10% increases in prior years, reversing a long downward trend.
Career changers now make up a significant and growing share of new teachers: 52% of Teach For Australia’s 2026 cohort are mid-career professionals, and AITSL data shows around 21% of early career teachers nationally are aged 40+. This is being supported by government reforms: $40,000 Commonwealth Teaching Scholarships (5,000 being awarded across five rounds from 2024 to 2028), the Commonwealth Prac Payment from July 2025, and updated Initial Teacher Education curricula.
These are structural improvements that will take time to flow through. A student who started a teaching degree in 2025 will enter a classroom in 2028 or 2029. For school leaders planning workforce coverage for the next two to three years, the pipeline recovery is encouraging but not yet felt on the ground.
What This Means for School Workforce Planning
1. Your Casual Roster Is a Strategic Asset
With the permanent workforce under pressure, casual and relief teachers are carrying more of the load than ever. The AITSL data shows that 59% of casual relief teachers (CRTs) work part-time (less than four days per week) and 24% have 40+ years of experience. This is a skilled, flexible workforce that many schools underutilise.
Schools that invest in their casual roster (building relationships, maintaining accurate availability records, and making it easy for casuals to work at their school) are better positioned to handle absence peaks without merging classes or pulling leaders off other work.
2. Retention Matters More Than Recruitment
Losing one experienced teacher costs more than hiring two new ones: in institutional knowledge, student relationships, and the time it takes to recruit and induct a replacement. Schools that focus on workload management, professional development, and staff wellbeing will outperform those that focus only on filling vacancies.
The data is clear: workload is the number one driver of attrition. Schools can control how work is distributed, how admin burden is managed, and how relief coverage is handled so permanent staff are not absorbing absent colleagues’ classes on top of their own.
3. Career Changers Are Coming: Prepare for Them
With career changers comprising over half of new teaching cohorts in some programs, schools need to be ready for a different kind of new teacher. These are professionals with life experience, transferable skills, and often less patience for inefficient systems. They bring a lot to a school, but they also need targeted support during their first years.
4. Regional Schools Need Different Strategies
The data shows shortages are not uniform. Metro schools in Sydney and Melbourne have broadly adequate supply, while schools 200km from the nearest city are running on empty. Regional and remote schools need proactive workforce strategies: housing support, flexible work arrangements, and creative approaches to accessing relief teachers across distance.
5. Technology Is Part of the Solution
Digital platforms for booking casual teachers, managing availability, and tracking compliance data have become standard tools in many schools. They don’t solve the underlying supply problem, but they make better use of the supply that exists. A school with 30 casuals on a well-managed digital roster will fill absences faster and more reliably than a school with 50 casuals on a spreadsheet that hasn’t been updated since last term.
Looking Ahead
The Australian teacher workforce is under pressure, but the narrative is more complex than “teachers are leaving in droves.” Entry rates are recovering. Government investment is scaling. Career changers are entering the profession in meaningful numbers.
The schools that will navigate this period best are the ones that:
- Plan ahead: building deep casual rosters before absence peaks
- Retain their people: addressing workload before it becomes a resignation
- Use their data: tracking absence patterns, fill rates, and roster health each term
- Adapt to their context: applying state-specific strategies rather than national generalisations
The shortage is real. Schools that treat workforce planning as a deliberate system manage it well.
Sources
- AITSL, National Trends: Teacher Workforce (June 2025): aitsl.edu.au
- AITSL, Australia’s Teacher Workforce Today (Spotlight): aitsl.edu.au
- AITSL, Teacher Workforce Data — Media Release (June 2025): aitsl.edu.au
- AEU, State of Our Schools Survey 2024: aeufederal.org.au
- OECD, TALIS 2024 Australian Report: research.acer.edu.au
- Arnold & Rahimi (2025), Teacher retention and attrition, Asia Pacific Journal of Education: tandfonline.com
- UNSW / Black Dog Institute (2025), Teachers’ workload, turnover intentions, and mental health: unsw.edu.au
- IEU, 2025 Education Trends: ATWD Analysis: ieusa.org.au
- NSW Department of Education, Teacher Vacancy Data (August 2025): education.nsw.gov.au
- Victorian Department of Education, Teacher Workforce Snapshot 2024: education.vic.gov.au (PDF)
- QCT, Attrition of Recent Queensland Graduate Teachers (2019): qct.edu.au (PDF)
- WA Department of Education, 2024–25 Annual Report: via The West Australian
- Minister for Education Jason Clare, Teaching Applications Data (January 2026): ministers.education.gov.au
- Teach For Australia, 2026 Cohort Announcement: teachforaustralia.org
- Australian Government, Commonwealth Teaching Scholarships: education.gov.au
- Australian Government, Commonwealth Prac Payment: education.gov.au
